Evaluating real-world forecasts
Hubs accelerate scientific discovery
“Comparing the accuracy of forecasting applications is difficult because forecasting methods, forecast outcomes, and reported validation metrics varied widely.”
– Chretien et al., PLOS ONE, 2014
The US COVID-19 Forecast Hub
Launched April 2020 by the Reich Lab in collaboration with CDC. Goals were to:
- Provide decision-makers and general public with reliable information about where the pandemic is headed in the next month.
- Assess reliability of forecasts and gain insight into which modeling approaches do well.
- Create a community of infectious disease modelers underpinned by an open-science ethos.
…provided CDC with weekly forecasts
…had prominent uses
Hubverse is the tool we wish we had
Who works with a hub?
What does hubverse data look like?
Some columns define a prediction task
Others are always present
