Independent learning outcomes

Forecasting

• understanding of forecasting as an epidemiological problem
• understanding of ways to visualise forecasts

Evaluating forecasts

• familiarity with metrics for evaluating probabilistic forecasts and their properties
• ability to score probabilistic forecasts in R

Ensemble models

• understanding of predictive ensembles and their properties
• ability to create a predictive ensemble of forecasts in R
• understanding the concept of weighted forecast ensembles