Timetable

This is the Forecasting & evaluation course, taught July 15-17 (the second half of the SISMID week, Wednesday midday to Friday). It is paired with the companion nowcasting course which runs from Monday through Wednesday morning, July 13-15.

Day	Time	Session / activity	Content
Wed 15 Jul		Getting started
	13.30–14.15	Session 0 · Introduction & course overview	Slides
	14.15–15.00	Session 1 · Forecasting concepts	Slides
	15.00–15.30	Coffee break
	15.30–16.15	Session 2 · Time series forecasting 101	Slides
	16:15–17.00	Session 3 · Baselines and seasonality	Slides
Thu 16 Jul	09.00–09.15	Day 1 review
	09.15–10.30	Session 4 · Forecast evaluation	Slides
	10.30–11.00	Coffee break
	11.00–12.00	Session 5 · Epidemiologically-motivated forecasting	Slides
	12.00–12.30	Interlude: What do good models look like?	Slides
	12.30–13.30	Lunch
	13.30–15.00	Session 6 · Evaluating real-world outbreak forecasts	Slides
	15.00–15.30	Coffee break
	15.30–17.00	Session 7 · Forecasting with ensembles	Slides
Fri 17 Jul	09.00–09.15	Day 2 review
	09.15–10.15	Session 8 · Building and evaluating real-world ensembles	Slides
	10.15–10.30	Interlude: model importance	Slides
	10.30–11.00	Coffee break
	11.00–12.30	Session 9 · Local hub playground: building forecasts	Slides
	12.30–13.30	Lunch
	13.30–14.00	Session 10 · Multivariate forecast evaluation	Slides
	14.00–15.00	Session 11 · Local hub playgroud: testing & submitting	Slides
	15.00–15.30	Coffee break
	15.30–16.30	Session 12 · Research talks	TBD
	16.30–17.00	Session 13 · Course wrap-up	Slides