This is the Forecasting & evaluation course, taught July 15-17 (the second half of the SISMID week, Wednesday midday to Friday). It is paired with the companion nowcasting course which runs from Monday through Wednesday morning, July 13-15.
| Wed 15 Jul |
13.30–14.00 |
Session 0 · Introduction & course overview |
Slides, Getting started |
|
14.00–15.00 |
Session 1 · Forecasting concepts |
Slides, Practice |
|
15.00–15.30 |
Coffee break |
|
|
15.30–17.00 |
Session 2 · Improving forecasting models |
Slides, Practice |
| Thu 16 Jul |
09.00–09.15 |
Day 1 review |
|
|
09.15–10.30 |
Session 3 · Forecast evaluation |
Slides, Practice |
|
10.30–11.00 |
Coffee break |
|
|
11.00–12.30 |
Session 4 · Forecasting with epidemiological insights |
TBD |
|
12.30–13.30 |
Lunch |
|
|
13.30–15.00 |
Session 5 · Evaluating real-world outbreak forecasts |
Slides, Practice |
|
15.00–15.30 |
Coffee break |
|
|
15.30–17.00 |
Session 6 · Local hub playground |
Slides, Practice |
| Fri 17 Jul |
09.00–09.15 |
Day 2 review |
|
|
09.15–10.30 |
Session 7 · Advanced forecast evaluation |
TBD |
|
10.30–11.00 |
Coffee break |
|
|
11.00–12.30 |
Session 8 · Forecasting with ensembles |
Slides, Practice |
|
12.30–13.30 |
Lunch |
|
|
13.30–14.00 |
Session 9 · Model importance |
TBD |
|
14.00–15.00 |
Session 10 · Local hub playground |
TBD |
|
15.00–15.30 |
Coffee break |
|
|
15.30–16.30 |
Session 11 · Research talks |
TBD |
|
16.30–17.00 |
Session 12 · Course wrap-up |
Summary, further reading |